The annual “peak season” for cargo transportation has begun, but there are no visible signs of congestion in global logistics.

Many logistics companies report that cargo volumes have shown signs of decline since May. The situation has not improved and has even worsened over the past two months.

“Typically, August to October is the ‘peak season’ for ocean freight, while October to January of the following year is the peak for air freight, driven by the back-to-school period and year-end holiday shopping. However, this year, it appears that this will not happen, and the ‘peak season’ may never arrive,” a logistics company shared.

Mr. Jens Roemer, Senior Vice President of FIATA and Head of the FIATA Sea Freight Working Group, noted that excessive inventory stockpiling over the past period has further aggravated the decline in cargo volumes, leading to a sharp drop in freight rates.

According to new data from the freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, average capacity from Asia to the U.S. West Coast has fallen to its lowest level since February over the past four weeks.

During this period, an average of 275,000 TEU departed Asia for the U.S. West Coast, approximately 50,000 TEU lower than the peak recorded in early August.

Compared to the same four-week period in 2021, capacity has decreased by 13%, equivalent to removing 21 vessels of 8,000 TEU capacity—the average vessel size on this trade lane.

Shipping lines are “struggling to stabilize freight rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast by implementing blank sailings,” reducing supply by approximately 1.5 million TEU over the past 12 weeks. However, freight rates have still declined by 46.3% year-on-year, with Xeneta data indicating an average of USD 4,150 per FEU (40-foot container).

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, commented: “This is the highest number of blank sailings since January and February, a period when the industry typically anticipates very strong demand.”

According to Peter Sand, this is a strong strategy adopted by shipping lines, but it has not delivered the expected results. In particular, he noted that the peak season appears not to have materialized.

Sharing the same view, Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, stated: “Ocean freight demand is weakening—regardless of the drivers, whether inflation, recession concerns, or an early peak season—resulting in more available capacity than before.”